AMEG Strategic Plan
Planetary catastrophe is inevitable
without geoengineering to cool the Arctic
An assessment by AMEG
Could the world be in imminent danger and nobody is telling?
The Arctic is in meltdown. Uniquely and fearlessly AMEG has studied key non-linear trends in the Earth-human System and reached the stunning conclusion that the planet stands at the edge of abrupt and catastrophic climate change as a result of an unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic. This contrasts sharply with the linear prognostications of the models on which governments rely. Unlike the conventional view that climate change will impact gradually over many decades, AMEG acknowledges the impact is now, therefore requiring action now to prevent the situation spiraling out of control.
Climate extremes are all too apparent resulting in food prices rising ominously towards a level which could put over a billion people into starvation next year and provoke food riots all over the world.
Governments must get a grip. Planetary catastrophe is inevitable without geoengineering to cool the Arctic. AMEG estimates that 0.4 petawatts of cooling power is required in 2013 to prevent an even worse collapse than in 2012. This is a tremendous geoengineering challenge, but the AMEG strategic plan shows how it might be met. Countries must support such a plan with immediate action, or disaster is inevitable.
Rapid action is needed because of the speed of deterioration of the situation both in the Arctic where summer sea ice could disappear this decade, and in the rest of the world, where the repercussions of Arctic warming on climate are growing alarmingly.
The situation is deteriorating so rapidly that almost all countries will be affected by a food security crisis by 2015. If this is not addressed, many countries will be affected by social unrest. This will have a knock-on effect to the rest of the world, as supplies to valuable resources, including oil and gas, will be curtailed.
For the billion people already on the starvation line, there may be no chance of survival, and a humanitarian disaster can be expected before 2015 unless the impending food crisis is tackled straightaway. For the billions of people where the average spending on food is 80% of income, the probable 25% rise in cost of food by 2015 will inevitably push people onto the starvation line. The unrest that will be caused in most countries should be of major concern to the leadership. For the most developed countries, there is the prospect of stagflation even next year.
All world leaders need to sit up and take note. The deteriorating food security will affect their ability to retain power and win elections, almost certainly by 2015.
What is happening will seriously impact food, agriculture and the insurance industry in 2013, with the negative impact growing inexorably from then onwards.
If there is no action to cool the Arctic, the food situation will continue to deteriorate until there is a collapse of civilisation as we know it. But, even if the food situation were recovered, the impact from methane release and disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet would ensure that collapse.
But every cloud has a silver lining. This situation can be considered a golden opportunity, unique in the history of our civilisation, for all nations to work together towards the common goal of survival. Each and every one of us has an interest in that.
Continued: click here for full text of this overview.
Arctic Methane: Why The Sea Ice Matters
Methane Hydrates: Hazard or Resource
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Paul Beckwith at Ecoshock
Saving the Arctic Ice
Nathan Currier describes responses to the emergency in the Arctic in the post Saving the Arctic Ice: Greenpeace, Greenwashing and Geoengineering (#1), concluding that geoengineering will have to be part of the action.
AMEG issues policy brief
AMEG issues policy brief, urging immediate government action.