Arctic Sea Ice - Methane Release - Planetary Emergency
AMEG Chairman, John Nissen, today (12th july 2013) gave this presentation at the "Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly DACA-13"
You can download the presentation by clicking here.
ANNOUNCEMENT: Governments must put two and two together, and pull out all stops to save the Arctic sea ice or we will starve.
Arctic sea ice
Next week, the White House will hear evidence from Australian scientist, Carlos Duarte, that the Arctic sea ice is on such a downward spiral that we may see a dramatic decline of sea ice over the next two years . Evidence was given to the UK government last year from British scientists, Peter Wadhams and John Nissen, that we could see minimal sea ice by September 2015, simply extrapolating the sea ice volume trend . Evidence from recent satellite images suggests that a record melt is in progress this year. The plight of the Arctic was highlighted to MPs and the Met Office in a recent showing of the film “Chasing Ice” at the House of Commons, London . The Arctic has recently become an issue in the European Parliament .
Weather extremes and food security
Research from US scientist, Jennifer Francis, suggests that the retreat of sea ice is causing a disruption of jet stream behaviour, producing weather extremes . Evidence was given to the UK government last year that the weather extremes being experienced in the UK and elsewhere could be due to this disruption of weather systems as the Arctic warms relative to the tropics. This evidence was reported by Robin McKie in the Observer, on 7th April in an article entitled: “Why our turbulent weather is getting harder to predict” . The weather extremes from last year are causing real problems for farmers, not only in the UK, but in US and many grain-producing countries. World food production can be expected to decline, with mass starvation inevitable. The price of food will rise inexorably, producing global unrest and making food security even more of an issue .
Putting these two strands of evidence together, it is obvious that we face an ever worsening food crisis unless something dramatic is done straightaway to cool the Arctic and save the Arctic sea ice. This sounds impossible, but can be done. Our best chance of success in cooling the Arctic quickly involves cloud cooling techniques, such as being developed by engineers Stephen Salter in the UK and Aaron Franklin in New Zealand. Franklin’s technique could be deployed almost immediately.
Rapid collaborative action is common-sense logic and therefore the morally and legally correct thing to do in protecting citizens, see UNFCCC, Article 3 . It also presents a golden opportunity for reconciliation between all peoples and all communities through working together towards a common purpose: to save our planet for enjoyment by future generations. There is no time to lose.
Government response to Environmental Audit Committee report based on non-existing observations, says AMEG
Planetary catastrophe is inevitable
without geoengineering to cool the Arctic
An assessment by AMEG
Could the world be in imminent danger and nobody is telling?
The Arctic is in meltdown. Uniquely and fearlessly AMEG has studied key non-linear trends in the Earth-human System and reached the stunning conclusion that the planet stands at the edge of abrupt and catastrophic climate change as a result of an unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic. This contrasts sharply with the linear prognostications of the models on which governments rely. Unlike the conventional view that climate change will impact gradually over many decades, AMEG acknowledges the impact is now, therefore requiring action now to prevent the situation spiraling out of control.
Climate extremes are all too apparent resulting in food prices rising ominously towards a level which could put over a billion people into starvation next year and provoke food riots all over the world.
Governments must get a grip. Planetary catastrophe is inevitable without geoengineering to cool the Arctic. AMEG estimates that 0.4 petawatts of cooling power is required in 2013 to prevent an even worse collapse than in 2012. This is a tremendous geoengineering challenge, but the AMEG strategic plan shows how it might be met. Countries must support such a plan with immediate action, or disaster is inevitable.
Rapid action is needed because of the speed of deterioration of the situation both in the Arctic where summer sea ice could disappear this decade, and in the rest of the world, where the repercussions of Arctic warming on climate are growing alarmingly.
The situation is deteriorating so rapidly that almost all countries will be affected by a food security crisis by 2015. If this is not addressed, many countries will be affected by social unrest. This will have a knock-on effect to the rest of the world, as supplies to valuable resources, including oil and gas, will be curtailed.
For the billion people already on the starvation line, there may be no chance of survival, and a humanitarian disaster can be expected before 2015 unless the impending food crisis is tackled straightaway. For the billions of people where the average spending on food is 80% of income, the probable 25% rise in cost of food by 2015 will inevitably push people onto the starvation line. The unrest that will be caused in most countries should be of major concern to the leadership. For the most developed countries, there is the prospect of stagflation even next year.
All world leaders need to sit up and take note. The deteriorating food security will affect their ability to retain power and win elections, almost certainly by 2015.
What is happening will seriously impact food, agriculture and the insurance industry in 2013, with the negative impact growing inexorably from then onwards.
If there is no action to cool the Arctic, the food situation will continue to deteriorate until there is a collapse of civilisation as we know it. But, even if the food situation were recovered, the impact from methane release and disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet would ensure that collapse.
But every cloud has a silver lining. This situation can be considered a golden opportunity, unique in the history of our civilisation, for all nations to work together towards the common goal of survival. Each and every one of us has an interest in that.
Continued: click here for full text of this overview.
Arctic Methane: Why The Sea Ice Matters
Methane Hydrates: Hazard or Resource
Paul Beckwith at Ecoshock
Saving the Arctic Ice
Nathan Currier describes responses to the emergency in the Arctic in the post Saving the Arctic Ice: Greenpeace, Greenwashing and Geoengineering (#1), concluding that geoengineering will have to be part of the action.
AMEG issues policy brief
AMEG issues policy brief, urging immediate government action.